Young, Showing H. with Kun -Tung Yu and Sy-Feng Wang, "A Design of the Public Housing Policies through the Dynamics Analysis of the Intra-Urban Migration Structure", 1991

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To construct more public houses so that the low income population in the urban areas can have their own houses is one of the major efforts of the government of the Republic of China on the island of Taiwan . This good-will policy did solve some of the housing problems, yet remained some undesirable ones, such as, the large amount of unsold public houses. Those unsold public houses were primarily due to (1) delayed supply, (2) smaller sizes, and (3) unsuitable locations. This research attempts to study the “unsuitable location problem” and “too small size problem” in the city of Kaohsiung . The System Dynamics methodology is employed to study these problems through model building and policy testing. The model is composed of three sectors: (1) population and the zonal migration attractiveness, (2) housing supply, and (3) housing demand. All the three sectors are interacted with each other. The selection of the variables and the weight of variables are partly determined by field survey. By focusing on the structure of intra-urban migration, it is found that the intra-urban system has a very dynamic feature. The simulation results show that the behavior of the population flow is dominated by several feedbacks loops, some reinforce the growth of population, while others limit it. Through analyzing the simulation results of the model, some design principles of the public housing policy are suggested. From the demonstration of some policy tests, it shoes is the potential of the model to aid the formulation of a “dynamic” public housing policy design, that is, when to supply how much of a certain level public houses to which area of the city under a specific scenario. This preliminary study shows that system dynamics is not only a useful tool to have insights into this kind of complex socioeconomic problems, but also potential to deal with the spatial dimension of urban issues in addition to its mostly temporal applications.

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  • 1991
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