Siddiqi, Toufiq A. with Phares Parayno and Hartmut Bossel, "Applying Systems Dynamics to Climate Change Issues", 1991

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Global climate change has emerged as a major policy issue in industrialized as well as developing countries. The increasing emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and CFCs are believed to be the primary cause of Man’s contribution to climate change. This trend would have to be slowed down and subsequently reversed, if the earth's climate is to remain relatively stable.System dynamics can be used to calculate future emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the use of fossil fuels and to examine the effects of introducing new energy technologies on such emissions. In this paper, we illustrate this approach by estimating the future emissions of CO2 from energy use in the transportation sectors in India, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand . The sensitivity of such emissions to improvements in automobile efficiency, and to the relative use of public and private transportation is examined.The approach discussed in the paper can be easily extended to other energy use sectors, such as electricity generation, or industrial uses. Studies of this type can provide valuable input to policy- makers for optimizing the allocation of scarce resources to meet the challenge of global climate change.

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  • 1991
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