~434-
A Decision Support Model for
University Management
by
P. J. Vermeulen!, W. J. Rossouw!l,
and M. J. Joubert2
1University of Pretoria
2University of Zululand
Republic of South Africa
-435-
PROBLEM
PRE-1986 SITUATION
(a) UNCONSTRAINED GROWTH OF UNIVERSITIES
(b) 6% GROWTH RATE
(c) 85% GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY - UNCONDITIONAL
(d) OPEN CHOICE OF FIELD OF STUDY
(e) ADMISSION CRITERIA IN SOME FACULTIES (E.G.
MEDICAL & VETERINARY) DUE TO LIMITED FACILITIES
(f) LECTURING POSTS ACCORDING TO SUBSIDY FORMULA
PROBLEM
HISTORICAL TRENDS AND EXTRAPOLATION
UMMM. WKN
SOCIAL SCIENCES
EA
WHHL. KKK
NATURAL SCIENCES
SS
HHI. WK=KW=W
HHH. W2K™K™KWKW WN
THMHUU. WN
ZK
MHUU.WW\
HHU.W
30000
20000
10000
SINACAUS
2000
TIME
1980
1960
2000
TIME -
SOCIAL SCIENCES
1980
1960
2000
fefofo)
SLSOd danlowl
-437-
PROBLEM
NEW DISPENSATION AND CONSTRAINTS
(a)
(c)
(4)
GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY RESTRICTED TO 1986
UNDERGRADUATE STUDENT NUMBERS
NO GROWTH INCENTIVE
GROWTH IN POST-GRADUATE ENROLEMENT WILL
ENHANCE GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY
GROWTH IN TECHNICONS WILL BE STIMULATED AT
THE EXPENSE OF UNIVERSITIES
NATIONAL MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS MUST BE
CONSIDERED
RESEARCH OUTPUT AT UNIVERSITIES WILL BE
REMUNERATED BY THE GOVERNMENT
HIGHER STUDENT SUCCESS RATE ENCOURAGED
UNIVERSITIES ENCOURAGED TO GENERATE OWN
FUNDS
~438-
PROBLEM
FACTORS CONSIDERED BY MANAGEMENT
(A) EXTERNAL FACTORS
MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS
STIMULATE/DEPRESS CERTAIN FACULTIES
AND DEPARTMENTS
POPULATION GROWTH
STATE OF NATIONAL ECONOMY
GROWTH OF COMPETING TERSIARY INSTITUTIONS
(B) POLICY FACTORS
NUMBER AND QUALITY OF BURSARIES
UNDER/POST-GRADUATE SELECTION
PROGRAMMES
RECRUITMENT PROGRAMMES
FUND RAISING CAMPAIGNS
“EXCELLENCE” OF PERSONNEL
-439-
MODEL
NOMENCLATURE OF VARIABLES IN
FLOW DIAGRAM
(a) FER — FRESHMEN ENROLEMENT RATE
(b) FPG © — FRESHMEN POST-GRADUATES
(c) FPGDOR - FRESHMEN POST- GRADUATE DROP OUT RATE
(4) FPGPR - FRESHMEN POST-GRADUATE PROMOTION RATE
(ec) FUG - FRESHMEN UNDERGRADUATES
(t) FUGDOR - FRESHMEN UNDERGRADUATE DROP OUT RATE
(g) FUGPR - FRESHMEN UNDERGRADUATE PROMOTION RATE
(h) SPG — SENIOR POST-GRADUATES
(i) SPGDOR — SENIOR POST-GRADUATE DROP OUT RATE
(j) SPGG - SENIOR POST-GRADUATE GRADUATIONS
(k) SUG - SENIOR UNDERGRADUATES
(I) SUGDOR - SENIOR UNDERGRADUATE DROP OUT RATE
(m) SUGG - SENIOR UNDERGRADUATE GRADUATIONS
(n) SUGPR - SENIOR UNDERGRADUATE PROMOTION RATE
MODEL
Q ¥
: :
GDO
(i
Oc ><
SUGPR
-441-
MODEL
MANPOWER
NEEDS
POPULATION
POTENTIAL
FRESHMEN
ECONOMY
TERSIARY
INSTITUTIONS
RECRUITMENT
[BURSARIES
|UNIVERSITY |, _| GOVERNMENT
STUDENT/ BUDGET SUBSIDY
LECTURER
RATIO _k
SELECTION
-442-
MODEL
DECISION OPTIONS
EXTERNAL SCENARIO PARAMETERS
‘, MANPOWER NEEDS IN CESM—CATEGORIES
2. POPULATION GROWTH RATE AND MIGRATION
3. GROWTH RATE OF THE ECONOMY
4, OTHER TERSIARY INSTITUTIONS
POLICY OPTIONS
1. UNDER- AND POST-GRADUATE RECRUITMENT
PROGRAMMES FOR THE 22 CESM—CATEGORIES
2. UNDER- AND POST-GRADUATE SELECTION
PROGRAMMES FOR THE 22 CESM—CATEGORIES
3. GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY AND DISTRIBUTION
OF UNIVERSITY BUDGET
~443-
RESULTS
* NO RECRUITMENT
* NO SELECTION
SCENARIO 1
Ea UNDERGRADUATES
POST—GRADUATES
40000
30000
z2oo00
10000
SINCAUS
1995 200s
TIME
198s
SOCIAL SCIENCES
ee TR Me
WaATURAT
2500
250
S1S0d auMOd1
1995 2005
TIME
1985
~444—
RESULTS
SCENARIO 2 — * UNDERGRADUATE RECRUITEMENT FROM 1992
40000
10000
2500
#
v
a
°
LECTURE POSTS
* POST-GRADUATE RECRUITEMENT FROM 1988
* SELECTION IN SOME CESM—CATEGORIES
if
UNDERGRADUATES
POST—GRADUATES
1985 1995 2008
TIME
SOCIAL SCIENCES
NATURAL SCIENCES
TIME
~445-
RESULTS
SCENARIO 3 + SAME AS SCENARIO 2
STUDENTS
LECTURE POSTS
* ENHANCED RECRUITEMENT IN SOME
CESM-CATEGORIES
40000
UNDERGRADUATES:
POST—GRADUATES
30000
20000 S
ZA
10000 Z
Z
SJ
2 ar 20068
2500
1250
SOCIAL SCIENCES
NATURAL SCIENCE:
1985 1995 2005
TIME
~446-
RESULTS»
OBSERVATIONS
. SCENARIO 1 - STANDARD RUN
* ABSORB SUBSIDY LOSSES UNTIL NUMBER OF STUDENTS
AGAIN REACH 1986 LEVEL
* NO GROWTH IN POST-GRADUATE STUDENTS
. SCENARIO 2
* SMALLER OVERSHOOT OF 1986 STUDENTS
* MORE POST-GRADUATE STUDENTS
* MORE PHYSICAL AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCE STUDENTS
. SCENARIO 3 - EQUILIBRIUM RUN
* DESIRED DROP IN UNDERGRADUATE STUDENTS
* GROWTH IN POST-GRADUATE STUDENTS — MORE SUBSIDY
* STABILIZING OF TOTAL NUMBER OF STUDENTS
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