THE DESIGN AND TESTING OF PLANS
AT GOVERNMENT LEVEL
IN KUWAIT
M. ALWANI (SENIOR EXPERT IN PLANNING
MINISTRY OF INTERIOR, KUWAIT}
E.F. WOLSTENHOLME (SENIOR LECTURER,
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE,
UNIVERSITY OF BRADFORD, MANAGEMENT CENTRE)
4. A. AL-HUDAIB (ASSISTANT UNDERSECRETARY
MINISTRY OF INTERIOR, KUWAIT}
age
BACKGROUND
This poster is concerned with the application of
system dynamics as a decision support tool to assist
the five-year development planning process in Kuwait.
The Kuwaiti Government, and in particular the
Ministries of the Interior and Planning, have been
progressively introducing more elaborate procedures
for development planning. A five year plan currently
exists and is being implemented. Work is now in
progress on the extension of the plan into the 1990's
and a system dynamics group is to be formed to
consolidate and extend existing support of the
planning process. The group will use micro computer
software (D¥YSMAP2) and plans to train Kuwaiti
technicians are underway.
This poster presents an example of how system
dynamics is being used in Kuwait to anlayse
objectives and plans for feasibility and compatibility
prior to implementation. The example concerns police
labour force planning and preliminary results and
conclusions are presented.
POLICE LABOUR FORCE PLANNING
PROBLEM:- To plan the Kuwaiti police labour force to
achieve the following objectives.
1) Police Commissioned Officers to be 13% of the total police
force
2) Police Non-Commissioned Officers to be 43.5% of the total
police force
3) Policemen to be 43.5% of the total police force
4) Total size of police force to be 7% of total Kuwait population
5) Capacity of training facilities to be fully utilised.
MODEL: PARAMETER VALUES (see diagram on next
sheet)
- Current Kuwaiti Population = 1.63E6
- Military Academy (Training of Commissioned
Officers)
- Candidate Intake Rate 120/150 per year
- Three Year Training Programme
- Current Number of Commissioned Officers = 1196
‘ (9% of Police Force)
- Non-Commissioned Officers Training School
- Candidate Intake Rate = 350/500 per year
~ One Year Training Programme
- Current Number of Mon-Commissioned Officers =
7127 (56% of Police Force)
~ Policemen Training Unit
- Candidate Intake Rate = 350/500 per year
- One Year Training Programme
- Current Number of Policemen = 4350 (34% of
Police Force)
TARGET
ee co 4 Carat OF ACADEMY
RECRUITMENT
RATE
vear | —
CANDIDATES
POP TRANSFER
GROWTH RATE ~Y
RATE
YEAR 2
CANDIDATES v
TRANSFER: vw
POLICE RATE
POPULATION —> LABOURFORCE YEAR 3
CANDIDATES
t AVAILABLE
+
GRADUATION
TARGET % RATE
TARGET ¥ eo
LABOURFORCE ° POLICE
PER N.c.0 @+— CAPACITY OF ACADEMY COMMISSIONED
1000 POPULATION RECRUITMENT —_ : OFFICERS
RATE
CANDIDATES
N
TRAINING
TRAINING
COMPLETION
+ Rl
ae ETIREMENT
RATE
POLICE
NON-COMMISSIONED
OFFICERS +
LEAVING
TARGET & RATE
POLICEMEN
PoLicrten 4 CAPACITY OF ACADEMY
RECRUITMENT
RATE
CANDIDATES.
N
TRAINING
TRAINING RETIREMENT,
COMPLETION RATE
RATE e
POLICEMEN]
: LEAVING
ACTUAL | RATE
LABOUR
FORCE
INFLUENCE DIAGRAM OF LABOUR
FORCE PLANNING MODEL
EXPERIMENTS WITH THE
POLICE LABOUR FORCE
PLANNING MODEL
1) Recruit all categories of police to fill current
capacities of training institutions (fulfil
objective 5).
2) Control recruitment of all categories of police
to achieve objectives 1 - 4.
3) Control recruitment of police to achieve new
objectives:
- police commissioned officers to be 20% of total force
- police non-commissioned officers te be 40% of total force
- policemen to be 40% of total force
~6-
EXPERIMENT 2
(RecrulT PoLIcE To FILL CAPACITIES OF TRAINING INSTITUTIONS)
Policemen and
fev ry eon rnc ame Non- Commissioned officers
50 Z,
| |
|
: i
40 7 i | i
| 1 | ht {
PeEE Gerba
HERE EG
i
300 H i I i H i i i i i |
j rig hg by dey te
| \ 4 \ { HT
i | yen tee ey tg
Pe Ra a Hy hh Ha E
ood Fd a a en ba |
Pi fe tn en oy eo eo fey
Ph te
Pid he a a gt tht htt
yn ty a oe a eo pg
ri ea eR
tok | i WTP conmssssone
Pkg hd L Officers
j Recruitment
Rate
i me ee i,
0 50 100 150 200
Time
months |
MODEL FOR LABOUR FORCE PLANNING |
BASIC MODEL ACTUAL POLICIES
1600
cov" Counissioned
Officers
ST policemen
Commissioned
Officers
0 5 100 150 200
Time
ponths
EXPERIMENT 1 CONTINUED
(RECRUIT POLICE TO FILL CAPACITIES OF TRAINING INSTITUTIONS)
fODEL FOR
sce acne etme aS
f €
o oe
in ie
°
~
BASIC MODEL ACTUGL POLICIES
we Lent wtoedend
Meares A ere
LABOUR FORCE PLAWNING
180 200
Time
ee
3
2
S
MONTHS _}
MODEL FOR
BASIC MODEL ACTUAL POLICIES
pagal”
ed
g
iil meee AcTua. PERCENTAGE
: POLICEMEN
a (710)
pt PERCENTAGE
: Cont sstoneD OrFicers (/10)
zZ TARGET AcTWAL
dt -------------------------#------->-g ---- >=
a
EY
a 7
G 5 196 150 200
LABOUR FORCE PLANNIKG
fecEors
(ON~LOMMISSIONED
FFICERS .(/10)
4
}
¢
{
1
»
-8-
EXPERIMENT 2
ConTROL RECRUITMENT OF POLICE To MEET TARGET PERCENTAGES
|noncs FoR LABOUR FORCE PLANNIN
i SUGCESTED POLICE WITH PoruLAr ton
160,
‘CoMMISSIONED
OFFICERS
RECRUITMENT
RATE
il
iM
6 50 400 150 205
MODEL FOR LABOUR FORCE PLANNING
SUGGESTED POLICY WITH POPULATION
500,
Non~Commissi0nep—>
OFFIcer
400) RECRUITMENT
RATE
200)
¢ 5 106 180 200
200,
EXPERIMENT 2 CONTINUED
ConTROL RECRUITMENT OF POLICE To MEET TARGET PERCENTAGES
NOBEL FOR LABOUR FORCE PLONKING
SUGGESTED POLICY WITH POPULATION PoLiceneN
RECRUITMENT
~ Rate
4 /
{
‘od
300)
i
200)
4
100)
dl L 1
rt) 50 100 150 200
sours |
OPEL FOR LABOUR FORCE PLANNING
SUGGESTED POLICY WITH POPULATION
800
500 a,
foe Np scone
40
30
aan
200
~~ Seyatsstone
100 ‘i
0 50 100 150 200
TIME
MOUTHS
=10s
EXPERIMENT 2 CONTINUED
ConTROL RECRUITMENT OF POLICE TO MEET TARGET PERCENTAGES
jwone Fon LABOUR FORCE PLANKING
| SUGGESTED POLICY WITH POPULATION
1.0.
1
a
i
Torat PoLice LaBour Force
PER 1000 Heap oF PopuLATION
/ (x19)
AcTUAL,
S
po.
ZY en
2
Re
0.6.
05.
2
Ss
bat.
St 100 150 200,
9
TIME
MONTHS
MODEL FOR LABOUR FORCE PLAMNIKG
SUGGESTED POLICY MITH POPULATION
be
Non-Commiss10NeD
é a ae sen” OFFICERS
: aa
| 4 ao Oe
= x
as ——— PERCENTAGE ~
feria PoLiceMEN (/10)
PERCENTAGE
Goressioge OFFICERS
AcTuat TARGET bea
-1l-
EXPERIMENT 3
Control RECRUITMENT OF PoLIce To MEET ReviseD PERCENTAGES
MODEL FOR LABOUR FORCE PLANNING
CHANGE LF, SPAN OF CONTROL
1.0.
j
a3]
i Tora Pouce Lapour Force
6 EININAN PER 1900 Heap OF POPULATION (X10)
AcTUAL.
0.6. j
j
4
4
084
i
i
j
0.40 T T 1
° 50 100 150 200
MONTHS:
JOBEL Fol BOER FORCE PLORKINC
CHORCE LY. SPAN OF CONTROL
( ton-Connssronen (/10)
ACTUAL OFFICERS
(Taser
- :
moore ACTUAL PERCENTAGE
Povicement (/10)
PERCENTAGE
Commissioned (710)
‘ACTUAL ~_OFFICERS
; a Sa
ae TARGET
& T 1
9 50 100 150 200
SPECIFIC
CONCLUSIONS
Experiment 1
Recruiting police to fill the capacity of the Training
Institutions will result in:
- the target police force size per 1000 head of
population being greatly exceeded
- the target percentages in each category of police
not being met.
Experiment 2
Recruiting police to meet the population based target
and the terget percentages in each category of police
will result in:
- the Training Institutes having to close down for
substantial periods of time and even then, an
excessive time before the targets are met given
current retirement policies and leaving rates
Experiment 3
Relaxing the target percentages in each category of
police:
- does not significantly affect the ability to control
the number of non-commissioned officers
- makes it more difficult than before to meet the
target for commissioned officers
~ makes it easior than before to meet the target for
policemen.
13%
SPECIFIC INSIGHTS
1) The current planning objectives for the recruitment
and operation of the police force are incompatible.
2) The problem stems from the currently excessive
number of non-commissioned officers and an
unacceptably long time is required to reduce the
number of these officers by recruitment cutbacks
alone.
3} Consideration should be given to more radical
measures to achieve the planned objectives:
- early retirement schemes
- inter category transfers and retraining
4) The model served the intended purpose of
highlighting planning weaknesses and acted as a
catalyst te focus attention on the need for internal
improvements in communication, negotiation and
compromise in the planning process.
CC BY-NC-SA 4.0