Online Content

101. Lyneis, James M., "Increasing the Effectiveness of Corporate Policy Models"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/gt54m562b?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:35Z
Description:
The philosophy of constructing models requires that the models be sufficiently detailed in order for them to have a significant impact on the development of detailed corporate plans. Although dynamic behavior may adequately be captured by a “simple” model, our experience in preparing models for a number of corporations indicates that detail is useful to facilitate initial acceptance of the model, and is often essential in assuring the model’s continued use by the client.

102. Maier, Helmut, "Measuring Image and Efficiency in Public Administration: A Dynamic Approach with Empirical Results"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/44558x85w?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:36Z
Description:
The background of this paper is an analysis carried out on the occasion of an election within an academic self-administration in West Berlin in 1980/81. This analysis considers (1) papers presented during the time before the election with opposing opinions as to image and efficiency of this administration, and (2) statistical data concerning possibilities within the structure of this administration and the realization of these possibilities by members of the staff over a period of seven years.

103. Mass, Nathaniel J., "Diagnosing Surprise Model Behavior: A Tool for Evolving Behavioral and Policy Insights"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/tx31r1535?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:37Z
Description:
Both in incipient and later phases of developing a model, unexpected behavior is frequently encountered—that is, behavior which is at odds with the initial expectations of the model builder or client. The appearance of such surprise behavior immediately raises two possibilities: either the behavior is implausible, and the model therefore must be revised; or the behavior withstands scrutiny and reveals previously unappreciated aspects of the system. In either instance, the process of diagnosing and interpreting surprise behavior gives a powerful basis for model for model evolution and generating policy insights. But frequently, it is quite difficult in practice to discern whether the incidence of surprise model behavior reveals errors or suggests insights. The paper is designed to contribute to the literature on model formulation, testing, and policy analysis, by discussing the criteria for diagnosing surprise model behavior. Several case examples are presented in which appropriate resolution of surprise model behavior led to significant model improvements and/or behavior insights. Moreover, operational guidelines are presented to increase the likelihood of uncovering and successfully treating surprise behavior.

104. Mode, V. Alan, "Applications of System Dynamics to a Nonprofit Research Organization"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/34850071v?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:38Z
Description:
A particularly interesting area for the application of system dynamics methodology is in business management; especially the interplay of quantitative (financial, economic) and qualitative factors (motivation, morale), and the decision-making choices which confront management. When a firm has a product which can be measured in economic terms, the construction of a model can be quite straight-forward. Even in non-quantitative areas such as research and development, models have provided insight into the decision-making process. While these models have been informative from both a system dynamics and management science perspective, the practical application of the results has been too often lacking. For a businessman, simulations and models are academic exercises unless they provide some measure of practical guidance. It was from a basis of requiring that the system dynamics model provide practical decision-making guidance in real-world environments that we have attempted several studies of R&D projects.

105. Morecroft, John D. W., "System Dynamics: Portraying Bounded Rationality"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/jm215700f?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:39Z
Description:
This paper examines the linkages between system dynamics and the Carnegie school in their treatment of human decision making. It is argued that the structure of system dynamics models implicitly assumes bounded rationality in decision making and that the recognition of this assumption would aid system dynamicists in model construction and in communication to other social science disciplines. The paper begins by examining Simon’s “Principles of Bounded Rationality” which draws attention to the cognitive limitations on the information gathering and processing powers of human decision makers. Forrester’s “Market Growth Model” is used to illustrate the central theme that system dynamics models are portrayals of bounded rationality. Close examination of the model reveals that the information content of decision functions is limited and that the information is processed through simple rules of thumb. In the final part of the paper there is a discussion of the implications of Carnegie philosophy for system dynamics, as it affects communication, model structuring and analysis, and future research.

106. Nguyen, Tanette N., "Comparing Tactical and Strategic Modeling Techniques in the Field of Public School Finance"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/cc08hz53n?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:40Z
Description:
This study proposes to compare two types of computer simulation techniques, namely tactical and strategic simulations. It explores the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods and stresses the importance of the insight to be gained by combining both approaches in the evaluation of public policies. A school finance reform policy is presented as a case study. More specifically, the research evaluates the implementation of a cost-of- education index (a mechanism to adjust for disparities in educational costs among school districts in a state) in the New York State aid formula. The study investigates, using two computer simulation techniques, the impact of this policy in terms of organizing per pupil expenditures.

107. Paich, Mark, "Architectural Cycles in the R"D Process"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/4f16cm05z?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:41Z
Description:
My paper focuses on an extension of the basic R&D model. The basic model uses the concept of an average product which the firm develops and eventually sells. The extended model used in my paper diaggregates products into products and architectures. In the extended model, products are developed and sold just as they are in the basic model. An “architecture” is a basic engineering development which, when completed, enables the firm to develop a large number of products. An investment of resources in architectural development is necessary before marketable products can be created.

108. Perri, Karla, "Designing Models for Policy Purposes: A View from Capitol Hill"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/2z10x733r?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:42Z
Description:
Many Congressional and Executive Branch policymakers are becoming discontent with the contribution of models to the policy process. One reason the modeling process and modeling results are being questioned is because of their perceived incomprehensibility and limited utility. This discontent has intensified with the Administration’s proposed reductions in domestic programs. This new mood of austerity is forcing researchers to justify modeling as useful to government policymaking.

109. Polya, Lance, "Structure- Behavior Relations for Certain Nonlinear, Second-Order Systems"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/9k41zx80c?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:43Z
Description:
An experiment was conducted using DYNAMO simulation to gain an understanding of the relation between the structure and behavior for a well-defined family of nonlinear, second-order systems. The result of the empirical investigation was 1) a taxonomy of structures—a categorization of the structures that give rise to all of the possible behavior modes; and 2) a set of observations and precepts—simply stated guidelines gleaned from the taxonomy that relate structure and behavior.

110. Probert, David E., "System Dynamics Modelling within the British Telecommunications Business"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/8049gp66k?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:44Z
Description:
System Dynamics modeling has been used in the formulation and implementation of strategic planning models for nearly five years within the Long Range and Strategic Studies Division of the British Telecommunications Business. This modelling has proceeded in close collaboration with the Department of Control and Management Systems of Cambridge University. The business itself is a public corporation which means that despite a certain degree of autonomy, it is still ultimately dependent upon the Government for approval of its investment plans and also its investment capital.

111. Pugh, Jack with J. Werb, "Micro-DYNAMO"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/8910kc227?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:45Z
Description:
Mini-DYNAMO has been adapted for the Apple II computer operating under Apple’s PASCAL system. Working within the constraints of a micro-computer, Micro-DYNAMO offers surprising capacity and speed. Models with up to 25 active equations will run in tolerable lengths of time, and models with up to 100 active equations can be run, although the time required to simulate them is rather long.

112. Rahn, R. Joel, "Aggregation in System Dynamics"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/d217r7103?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:46Z
Description:
Stochastic aspects of systems have generally been ignored in most system dynamics studies except for purposes of sensitivity testing. Yet any model that claims to be more than simply an empirical description of a system must treat the underlying stochasticity explicitly in terms of its contribution to the dynamics. Recent work in chemical, biological, and hydrodynamic systems has shown that the aggregation of stochastic effects can lead to novel behavior (self-organization in dissipative systems). In this paper, an analogy between models of these physical and system dynamics models is developed, in which system dynamics models are seen to be an approximation (to lowest order in an expansion in system size) to a stochastic model for the system. The implications of theoretical results derived for the physical system models are evaluated for their application to the system dynamics models. A research strategy to elaborate this to analyzing systems is proposed.

113. Randers, Jørgen, "Waves and Oil Tankers: Dynamics of the Market for Oil Tankers to the Year 2000"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/b8516553n?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:47Z
Description:
The oil tanker market is interesting from a system dynamics point of view. The market exhibits regularities which appear to be caused by an underlying structure which has been stable for at least 30 years, and probably longer. This seemingly stable structure is primarily the result of the systematic, but not particularly rational, behaviour of the main actor in the oil tanker market: the community of shipowners. The collective effect of their individualistic actions, I believe, is a rather violent and rhythmic development in the market- on a timescale of years to decades. The regularity is, of course, superimposed on a non-recurring pattern of developments caused by events entirely outside the control of the oil tanker community. In this paper I describe the stable structure and discuss what it means for the likely development of the oil tanker market over the next decade.

114. Reid, George W., "An Approach for System Dynamics Awareness"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/2j62sn327?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:48Z
Description:
Civil Engineer curricula are made up courses. Curricula also lead to degrees and most engineering curricula provide rather narrow time allocation to fundamental categories of course offering. It is usually a tight curricula, designed to be achieved in four calendar years by the good student, five by the average. It is sequestial in nature.  The upper limit of course hours is usually a constraint,  the addition of new course material must be at the expense of older material. The present curricula are built on science, math, chemistry physics, tools (drafting, surveying, computer programming, statistics), mechanics, dynamics, thermo and materials followed by general engineering and then the various components of civil engineering, such as hydraulics, transportation, sanitary, water resources, structures, materials, etc. This sequence presently produces a B.S. degree holder, ready to emerge on the scene at $18,000 - $30,000/year.

115. Richardson, George P., "Managing R"D in a High-Growth Company: The Significance of Coordinating People and Products"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/rr172f66g?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:49Z
Description:
A number of high technology firms have recently reported increasing delays in the development of computer-related hardware and software. Experiencing increasing product development times and schedule overruns, one such company commissioned a system dynamics study of the management of its product development group. The purpose of this study has been to uncover potential sources for rising product development times in the company and to identify those over which management can exercise some control.

116. Richmond, Barry, "Endogenous Generation of Structural Change in System Dynamics Models: An Illustration from a Corporate Context"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/8s45qt40h?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:50Z
Description:
System Dynamics models have been used extensively for depicting the dynamic behavior which arises from a given underlying feedback structure. In a typical application, a feedback structure is specified, numerical values for model parameters are specified, and then a base-run simulation is conducted. Following the establishment of a Base Case, initial conditions, table functions, constants, policy variables and exogenous inputs are altered; with the resulting impact on model behavior noted and analyzed.

117. Roberts, Nancy, "An Evaluation of Introduction to Computer Simulation: The System Dynamics Approach"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/x633fh992?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:51Z
Description:
With the goal of introducing system dynamics to high school students, a set of six learning packages were written during the 1979-80 academic year under grant number GOD7903439 from the US Office of Education. Co-authors of the material are Nancy Roberts, David Anderson, Ralph Deal, Michael Garet, and William Shaffer. The evaluations from pilot testing done during the grant year in six Greater Boston high schools suggest that the materials indeed can effectively accomplish this introductory role. The teachers involved generally made very positive comments about both the value of system dynamics as an exciting high school project as well as the appropriateness of particular materials.

118. Rohrbaugh, John, "Evaluating Objective Function Trajectories: What is in the Eyes of the Beholder"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/9593vc52b?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:52Z
Description:
Although the system dynamics literature covers issues of how to construct, analyze, test, validate, and implement dynamic models, surprisingly little attention has been paid to how managers react to and interpret the output from system dynamics models (see Gardiner and Ford, 1980; Rohrbaugh and Anderson, 1979). That is, system dynamicists construct feedback models that are simplifications of a complex reality and then conduct policy tests on these abridged representations. However, decision makers not trained in system dynamics may find that even these allegedly simplified models may be quite complex and difficult to evaluate, since model output typically consists of scores of variables interwoven over time.

119. Saeed, Khalid, "Rural Poverty and Development Policy in Pakistan: The Case of a Resilient Income Distribution System"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/x633fj00m?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:53Z
Description:
This paper attempts to explain the causes of widespread rural poverty which has persisted in Pakistan in spite of the development effort. The paper also analyses the various rural development policies implemented and explains why these policies have had little if any impact on the income of the rural poor. The main instrument of analysis of the study is a system dynamics model incorporating income generation and disbursement processes in an agrarian economy consisting of a capitalist sector and a self-employed sector. The analysis takes into account only the economic factors arising out of the rational decisions of the capitalists and the cultivators. These factors are considered adequate for maintaining rural poverty, although, the role of social and political factors is acknowledged. The study suggests that the absence of an economic force that should encourage ownership of land by its cultivators is a key factor responsible for the poor economic condition of the working rural households. Land is easily separated from cultivators and is concentrated in the capitalist sector. This concentration significantly reduces income in self-employment and thus leaves the cultivators with very little bargaining power for negotiating compensation for labor. Thus, development policies striving to increase productivity may only serve to increase the claim to income on the basis of ownership of resources. If ownership is concentrated outside of the cultivators, such policies may worsen economic condition of the cultivators. The study proposes a general framework for rural development incorporating simultaneously fiscal instruments that should encourage transfer of land ownership to its cultivators and policies that should help increase productivity of land.

120. Spencer, Sue, "The Alcoholic Lifecycles Model"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/4f16cm067?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:54Z
Description:
Alcohol abuse and treatment in the United States cost nearly $43 billion in 1975- including $19.64 billion in lost production, $12.74 billion in health and medical costs, $5.4 billion in motor vehicle accidents, $2.86 billion in violent crimes, $1.94 billion in social responses, and $0.43 billion in fire losses. There are about 13 million problem drinkers (including alcoholics) in the United States. Of these, less than 10 percent seek treatment. For those receiving treatment, the overall improvement rate ranges from 30 to 70 percent, depending on how broadly improvement is defined.

121. Steinberg, Marian N., "Alternative Strategies for managing Long Island’s Hard Clam Resource"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/j6731m795?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:55Z
Description:
Dramatic declines in harvests strengthen the assumption that Long Island’s hard clam fishery may be heading for collapse. A family of predator-prey models has been developed to test and evaluate alternative strategies to reverse the decline in hard clam harvests and/or stabilize the clam population. Harvesting is simulated as a fixed percent of standing stock and the behavior of the baymen in response to price and supply of clams is not included in the models. Five types of policies are evaluated: closed season, maximum size limit, hatchery seeding, bounty on predators, and nursery sanctuaries (closed areas). Effectiveness is judged for both the short term (ten years) and the long term (eleven to twenty years after the policy was instituted). While seeding options produce modest short term improvement in the annual value (8.0 to 10.8 percent), only the two bounty policies produce significant improvement in both the short term (17.0 and 72.6 percent) and the long term (20.4 and 66.4 percent). The results of this model reflect the influence of specific management policies on the biological system alone. A later version, incorporating the behavior of the baymen, will introduce key social and economic factors.

122. Sterman, John D., "Macroeconomic Effects of the Energy Transaction: A Dynamic Policy Analysis"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/9019sk382?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:56Z
Description:
This paper explores the following questions: 1.What are the economic consequences of escalations in unconventional energy costs on terms of economic growth, inflation, real energy prices, energy production, consumption, and imports? 2. To what extent are escalations internally generated by interactions between the energy sector and the rest of the economy?

123. Sterman, John D., "The Growth of Knowledge: Testing a Theory of Scientific Revolutions with a Formal Model"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/bv73ch26b?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:57Z
Description:
There has been a dramatic upheaval in our conception of science in recent years. The old notion that science is a logical, rational enterprise continually adding to the stockpile of knowledge has been challenged; many now recognize that the evolution of science is punctuated by violent disruptions. During such crises, or scientific revolutions, a tried and true theory is abandoned for an untested and often heretical alternative. The new theory destroys the old rather than building upon it, and thought he successor may flourish for centuries eventually another crisis develops and another revolution occurs. Some even claim that science is completely anarchic, more a no-holds-barred brawl than a calm, reasoned investigation of reality.

124. Tank-Nielsen, Carsten, "A Play in Four Acts or the Use of System Dynamics as a Catalyst in Public Policy Discussions"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/j098zv708?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:58Z
Description:
As a novice System Dynamicist one learns all the textbook rules and advice of system dynamics modeling. As a practicing System Dynamicist one learns the many shades of rules and advice.  The latter ones are only occasionally spoken about and seldom written down. The experience gained from applying formal modeling technique to a diffuse ambiguous reality, often exist as vague mental models of the various roles a formal simulation model and a policy analyst can play in the public policy formation process.

125. VanderWerf, Pieter, "The Use of Reference Modes in System Dynamics Modeling"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/nz806h10s?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:35:59Z
Description:
In the first lecture of the first system dynamics course I ever took the professor presented a list of the steps of a modeling project. During the rest of the semester it became apparent to all of us that actual projects never follow the list very closely. But it also became apparent that the list was useful anyway. It helped organize effort, gave direction to a stalled modeler, and provided a checklist of activities to be addressed (if not always accomplished).

126. Weil, Henry Birdseye, "Effecting Strategy Change with System Dynamics"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/4m90fc391?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:00Z
Description:
A System Dynamics project for a corporate client generally has three objectives: creation of an analytical tool, transfer of a new analysis technology into client organization, and managerial development. In many ways, the first two objectives are means toward the third. Development of new—and shared- perspectives, attitudes, and behaviors among the senior executives can be the most significant benefit from a System Dynamics project. This paper discusses how the process of System Dynamics has been used to draw out diverse points of view, to test and evaluate the differences, to build a consensus regarding key assumptions, to create confidence in the analytical tool which was developed, and, ultimately, to forge a managerial commitment to a new business strategy. The author draws upon several recent applications in the United States and Europe to illustrate the role of System Dynamics in effecting strategy change, and comments on how the process is affected by differences in organizational “culture”.

127. White, C., "Elements of Control in Alliance Force Development"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/w3763r053?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:01Z
Description:
This paper introduces an aggregate view of factors and policies that can influence the development of military forces in two international alliances which see each other as potential adversaries.  The growth of forces observed in the NATO and Warsaw Pact alliances is taken as a reference mode.  A conceptual System Dynamics Model is described which can accommodate a number of different perspectives on this issue.

128. Willett, Lois Schertz, "An Analysis of Energy-Economy Interactions"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/w6634n06m?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:02Z
Description:
There is a growing interest in energy and energy policy analysis because of the gap between the United States’ energy consumption and energy production. Numerous policies for dealing with America’s “energy crisis” have been discussed and evaluated. Underlying these policy investigations have been a variety of simulation models designed to analyze energy demand, energy supply, and the interaction between the two. Several of the models used for energy policy analysis do not couple the energy sector to the rest of the economy. Some modeling efforts even assume that there is no causality from energy to GNP. The purpose of this study is to examine the structural relationships that govern the interaction between the energy sector and the rest of the energy policies, so as to contribute to the development of more effective national energy policies. A computer simulation model that illuminates the feedback coupling between the energy sector and the rest of the U.S. economy is used in the analysis. The model is used to analyze the effects of increasing capital intensity of the energy sector on the level of economic output and the efficiency of a general class of conservation initiatives in mitigating those effects. When conservation initiatives are introduced, cumulative energy consumption is reduced and sales and profits of the producing sectors are lower. Average GNP is lower and average general unemployment is higher when conservation is introduced.

129. Wolstenholme, E. F., "Designing and Assessing the Benefits of Control Policies for Conveyor Belt Systems in Underground Coal Mines"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/sf268q284?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:03Z
Description:
This paper describes the application of System Dynamics in what is traditionally a hard engineering area, but where the application of analytical techniques are limited by the stochastic nature of the system driving forces (coalface output rates) and the need for highly credible, management orientated results. Methods and analysis have thus centered on using discrete simulation techniques based on open system models, primarily to assist in capacity design. The use of System Dynamics in this context is based on two premises. The first of these is that System Dynamics has, in addition to it s softer areas of application, considerable potential to both supplement and enhance Operational Research approaches in the analysis of such systems. Secondly, it is the author’s belief that the key to further development and acceptance of System Dynamics lies in bridging the gap between itself and associated subject fields, such as Operational Research, by direct demonstration of the approach within these fields. Recent technological advances within the coal clearance field have provided an excellent form for such a demonstration.

130. Zahn, Erich, "Systems Dynamics as a Tool for Corporate Planning

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1981
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 4a97153f59047c298f3bcd6b15c284f5, and e8eac154b3129692f26c222dbc2c9466
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/1n79hn33c?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:05Z
Description:
Corporate modeling in general and System Dynamics modeling in particular have now a history of more than two decades. Despite this fact impacts on the corporate planning process have not been very satisfactory. The reason is that in many cases system dynamics models (as well as other types of corporate models) had not been constructed, validated and implemented adequately for managerial use. They did not provide the information support which is needed in order to make the necessary decision in the various phases of a complex planning process that has a lot to do with major changes in markets, products, production processes, technologies, governmental regulations etc. Here, formal decisions rules as used in operation planning are impractical in most cases.

131. Appiah, R. K. with R.G. Coyle, "A Modern Control Engineering Approach to System Dynamics"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/vd66wh142?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:06Z
Description:
The paper reviews, briefly, the development of system dynamics (SD) and presents a modern control approach. It formulates and solves the SD policy design problem as a model-following control system design problem in an adaptive control framework. A computationally simple policy algorithm based on variable-structure system theory is used as an illustrative example of the stabilization of the dynamic characteristics of a production/raw materials system. Computer simulation results are given for the modern control approach as well as the classical SD techniques. Directions in which the modern control approach could be developed are indicated.

132. Bonnell,William S., "The Evolution of a Model: Computational Aid, Policy Making, Planning and Scheduling "

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/jw827v33c?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:07Z
Description:
This paper describes the development of a limited resource, backward scheduling, network model for an assembly department using DYNAMO. The model evolved in three stages: a calculation device, a policy exploration tool and a planning and scheduling system. An interesting feature of the model is the representation of the complex flow through various disassembly operations. Graphics and report interfaces with DYNAMO are discussed. The enclosed programs are provided on an as-is basis, without warranty either express or implied. No assurance of successful installation can be given.

133. Braden, Charles H., "Exemplary System Dynamics—Input-Output Analysis Model"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/cr56nj03n?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:08Z
Description:
An exemplary model has been formulated using a methodology which casts a modified version of input-output analysis into system dynamics format. The intent is to utilize the methodology for further study of the concept of a geeignet (appropriate) population for a society. The exemplary model represents a highly aggregated socio-economic system with six sectors. Evaluation of the quality of the society is an important issue in the geeignet population study, and to that end the technique of multi-attribute utility measurement (MAUM) has been included in the model. In order to study a mechanism that can minimize the marginal production cost during the time evolution of the system, a Cobb-Douglas production function that permits substitution between two factors has been incorporated into the agricultural sector. Model runs are shown which demonstrate the approach to equilibrium for the society and the time evolution of the society as the agricultural sector changes from a labor intensive to a capital intensive configuration.

134. Braunschweig, Bertrand, "A Technico-economical Simulation Model Focusing on Enhanced Recovery in Oil Fields"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/j098zv71j?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:09Z
Description:
:We present a technico-economical simulation model focusing on enhances recovery in oil fields. The model simulates several assumptions on the quantity of injected fluids, the operation’s start date, as well as the incidence on recovery. It is also possible to place one’s interest on financial and economical parameters. It can also be used for any oil field for which precise physical data may be obtained. Paper: N/A

135. Bush, James W. with Alan M. Schneider, Thomas L. Wachtel and John E. Brimm, "Fluid Therapy in Acute Large Area Burns: A System Dynamics Analysis"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/j098zv72t?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:10Z
Description:
A preliminary mathematical model of fluid dynamics in acute large area burns presently incorporates plasma water, urine output, burn water loss, insensible losses via the non-burned skin, lungs, and G-I tract, as well as inputs of maintenance water and theraputic (Brooke Formula) fluids. The model is an initial step in a longer-term project to identify the pathogenetic mechanisms that control fluid shifts and to evaluate the effects of crystalloid (sodium ion), colloid (albumin), and other guidelines for fluid resuscitation. The model is initialized in homeodynamic equilibrium for a standard 70 KG person, and gives reasonable, realistic responses to a wide range of parameter variations (body sizes, burn wound loss factors), step functions (burn size, discontinuation of maintenance water), and rates of therapeutic fluid administration, given its present structure. The addition of burn and nonburn interstitial and intracellular spaces and their constituents (water, sodium, albumin and potassium) will: 1) permit validation against a wide body of clinical and experimental data, 2) suggest refinements of current resuscitation guidelines, 3) suggest more incisive research on pathogenetic mechanisms and treatment modalities, and 4) permit comparison of System Dynamics with alternative modeling and simulation approaches.

136. Chen, Fiona Feng, "A New Kind of Sensitivity Testing in System Dynamics Modeling for Sensitive Results from Aggregation Assumptions"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/j9602h51q?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:11Z
Description:
This study has illustrated that simulating an aggregate model, using the same data set at the same level of aggregation, can lead to different model conclusions when different aggregation criteria are applied. This study's conclusion to the effect of aggregation of individuals can have significant influence on the results of the model is expected to have different implications for system-dynamics modeling. For the field of system-dynamics modeling, the study has identified a kind of model sensitivity that can not be tested by the methods of sensitivity testing presently used. For future research in the field, the concept of aggregation of individuals has to be clearly established and differentiated from the concept of aggregation of variables before general rules for this type of sensitivity testing can be identified. Similar sensitivity testing should be adopted in the system-dynamics modeling technique. If this has not been done, this simulation approach should be interpreted conservatively. This paper also discusses the problem of whether a universal aggregation scheme is the only highest aggregation scheme.

137. Chouraqui, Eugéne, "Formal Expression of the Evolution of Knowledge"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/js957058c?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:12Z
Description:
In this paper we present a formal system S∆, in order to characterise the evolution of knowledge. In addition to the connectors of classical logic, we introduce two dynamic connectors- the mediate future and the immediate future-expressing the transformations that may affect data in the course of time. The axiomatisation of these connectors and their semantic characterisation lead us to define a model of interpretation for the formal system which is comparable to that of Kripke for modal logic. With this model we prove the intrinsic consistence and the validity of S∆. Similarly we demonstrate completeness and other propositions connecting the immediate future and the mediate future.The formal system S∆ is one of the component modules of the ARCHES system, a symbolic system for the representation and treatment of knowledge whose objective is to produce new knowledge through two modes of reasoning-deduction and analogy-based upon specific processes of inference.

138. Choucri, N. with M. Karsky, "The World Oil Market: Two Models with Similar Policy Oriented Results"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/5712mq16c?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:13Z
Description:
The paper will deal very briefly with the model structures, and insist rather on comparison of some of the policy oriented results.Paper: N/A

139. Clark, Rolf with Samuel B. Graves and Kathleen Sheehan, "Extended Planning in the Navy and the Resource Dynamics Project"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/pr76fn084?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:14Z
Description:
The U.S. Navy's need for better long-range planning is discussed in light of recent dynamic increases to force plans. The difficulties embedded in the current planning and programming process, and the problems they cause in developing valid approaches are reviewed. The ongoing “Navy Resource Dynamics” project at The George Washington University is then presented as a means of overcoming the difficulties, and providing a timely planning model. The basis of the model is a lagged feedback analysis linking budget “flows” over time to weapon system asset “stocks.” The trade-off between naval force levels and the cost of owning the forces is emphasized with force readiness being a relevant measure.

140. Clark, Thomas D. with Edward L. Whitenberg and Alan H. Woodruff, "Defense Weapons Acquisition: A Systems Study"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/zg64v424t?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:15Z
Description:
The research reported in this paper was directed toward understanding and modeling acquisition policy within the DOD. The acquisition model presented was developed at the departmental level and primarily is intended to portray the strategic policy structure of the acquisition system. Lower levels of aggregation were used only where the detail involved was required to capture a major concept. The model parameters and outputs were designated to show what trends would be associated with the implementation of various policy alternatives. Emphasis was placed on the dynamic nature of the relationships within the acquisition system and how they are affected by the policies and external pressures. Exogenous factors input to the model include broad representations of the United States and Soviet economic conditions. The Soviet threat, so key to many of the political battles surrounding weapon acquisition, is generated in the model as a response to threat perceived by them, subject to the economic and political constraints. Incorporation of these and other key relationships was controlled through careful application of a design methodology.

141. Corliss , John M., "Model Documentation: Hinderance or Help"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/7h14b664f?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:16Z
Description:
Just as the cobbler's children are the last to have their shoes repaired, simulators—individuals who spend careers structuring the world into systematic models—have not developed tools and techniques to systematize and structure their own procedures. As a result, quick and easy communication among all interested parties during modek development is often made extremely difficult. Inputs which might be helpful to the modeller are consequently lost. It is also typically impossible for a client to maintain control over the implementation of his or her model design especially when the client and model builder are physically separated. Finally, when a version of the model is completed, there can be a considerable delay while an entirely new model description, in laymans terms, is prepared. Unfortunately, as a result of time constraints such as a description is sometimes never completed. Based on the work done at Purdue University and the frustration of designing and overseeing the implementation of a system dynamics simulation model at the Department of Energy, this paper describes a structured development and documentation approach to modelling. A systematic approach of this type forces the analyst to think out the implications of a given representation of the world before sitting down at a terminal. It provides a living (continually updated), standardized, written document which not only helps improve the quality of the work but allows for efficient communication between the client and the implementor and eliminates the need for most post model development documentation efforts.

142. Coyle, R. G. with R. K. Appiah, "The Use of Optimisation Methods for Policy Design in a System Dynamics Model"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/v118rx91z?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:17Z
Description:
The present paper carries these converging strands of work forward to address the problem of parameter selection for a given control structure and the comparison of the resultant performance of two competing policy designs.

143. Coyle, R. G. with J. C. Rego, "Scenario and Policy Evaluation in Electrical Supply Decisions, the Argentine Case"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/tx31r154f?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:18Z
Description:
The Argentine energy authorities elaborated a Plan for the Electricity National Sector, made known in 1979, where the policies to be followed for the period 1979-2000, were established. The Plan proposed basically a dramatic change in the structure of the present generating capacity configuration at the national level, toward a scheme predominantly hydro based. Apparently, the idea of an Electricity Sector less oil dependent, together with the utilization of a huge hydro-potential, which had been neglected until that moment, appeared promising. However, the study of the robustness of such plan, that is, its capability to perform well under different scenarios, became indispensible. The System Dynamics technique provided the possibility of analysing such robustness, by means of a continuous-time simulation model of the Argentine Electricity Sector. This paper presents the results of experimenting with that model, in order to determine the soundness of the policies proposed.

144. Day, Richard H., "Dynamical Systems Theory and Complicated Economic Behavior"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/6d570f01g?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:19Z
Description:
Recent developments in mathematics show that more-or-less random behavior and spontaneously evolving structures can be given analytical and deterministic representations. Both empirical simulation and theoretical models have been developed in economics that have similar capacities. This suggests that we are entering a new period when structural change and inherently unpredictable events can be explained or understood in terms of endogenous economic forces.

145. De Greene, Kenyon B., "Equilibrium, Critical Points, and Structural Stability and Change in System Dynamics and Systems Science"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/k643bh981?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:20Z
Description:
The need for grand unifying principles of the evolution of societal systems is stressed. Examples of such principles from other sciences are given. The economic long-wave or Kondratieff cycle is taken as a reference basis for the study fo the evolution of contemporary technological societies. A number of qualifications to the basic paradigm are made. Several areas of recent structural stability theory are discussed in terms their relevance to societal evolution. Particular stress is placed on the nonequilibrium and bifurcation situations. Structure-function-behavior interrelationships at and near critical points are considered the most important features pertinent to system change or reconfiguration. Attempts are made to provide a fuller integrated theory of societal evolution and structural change. A number of problems relative to system dynamics theory and modeling, and to the use of models in societal management, are introduced and suggestions for improvements are made.

146. Drew, Donald R., "A System Dynamics Model for Managing Aircraft Survivability"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/rr172f67r?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:21Z
Description:
The aircraft survivability model developed is comprised of five submodels: 1) Economy Submodel, 2) Budget Submodel, 3) Procurement Submodel, 4) Attrition Submodel, and 5) Survivability Submodel. The economy submodel generates the annual “Gross National Product” of the United States and “Federal Government Budget”. The budget Submodel uses the military output of the economy Submodel to determine the “Department of Defense Military Budget”. The DOD budget is broken down by service and function (Procurement, Operations and Maintenance, and RDT&E). In the Procurement Submodel, the “Procurement Budget for combat Aircraft” determined in the Budget Submodel is used to generate the parameters: “Acquisition Budget for Combat Aircraft” and “Modification Budget for Combat Aircraft”. The outputs of this submodel are the “Procurement Rate for Combat Aircraft”, and the “Modification Rate for Combat Aircraft”. The Attrition Submodel acts on the inventory of “Combat Aircraft” in the event of war. The number of combat aircraft increased by the outputs of the Procurement Submodel over years of peacetime are reduced in wartime through the “Attrition rate for Combat Aircraft”, which depends on the number of “Combat Aircraft”, the “Sortie Rate for Combat Aircraft”, “Mission Survivability for Combat Aircraft”, and the “Availability of Combat Aircraft”. The Survivability Submodel outputs are the “Mission Survivability for Combat Aircraft” and the “Availability of Combat Aircraft”. The former is the product of the “Susceptibility of Combat Aircraft” and “Vulnerability of Combat Aircraft”, both of which depend on the magnitude of the “Aircraft Survivability RDT&E Budget” outputed from the Budget Submodel. Reductions in the “Susceptibility of Combat Aircraft” and “Vulnerability of Combat Aircraft” affect the “Acquisition Cost of combat Aircraft” and “Modification Cost of Combat Aircraft” used in the Procurement Submodel. Additional feedback lops between the submodels are generated by monitoring the “Relative Strengths of U.S.S.R./U.S. Airpower” and incorporating the effects of this perception on the Economy Submodel, the Budget Submodel, the Procurement Submodel, and the Survivability Submodel. Thus the five submodels interact to form a series of interacting positive and negative feedback loops. The positive loops reinforce themselves leading to increased air power over time. The negative loops act through such constraints as resource availability and spiraling procurement costs to suppress the growth of air power.

147. Eberlein, Robert L. with Qifan Wang, "Validation of Oscillatory Behavior Modes Using Spectral Analysis"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/wm118667c?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:23Z
Description:
In this paper we outline and evaluate a simple technique for analyzing the ability of a model to reproduce an oscillatory behavior mode. The technique consists of using a model as a predictor, and then performing spectral analysis on the prediction errors. The technique is referred to as the spectral analysis of residuals or SAR test. The paper motivates the use of prediction residuals and illustrates the technique with a simple model of inventory oscillation. The SAR test appears to yield a substantial amount of information about the performance of a model. However, the technique breaks down if the observed behavior is a result of the system being subjected to shocks with similar dynamic characteristics to the system output or if the system has more than one set of mechanisms generating the behavior of interest. The SAR test is not capable of distinguishing between models which can explain the behavior equally well using different state space representations.

148. F jellså, Olav, "Dynamics of Growth in Solar Markets"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/r494w3866?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:24Z
Description:
As a step towards increasing our understanding of the dynamics of growth in solar markets, a simlpe generic System Dynamics model describing market penetration by a characteristic renewable energy technology is employed. The analysis demonstrates that for some classes of renewable energy, incentives are now adequate to provide for the necessary rates of growth. Technologies with slightly different features in our model are never able to sustain themselves in the market, no matter what federal subsidies they receive. A third group of solar technologies still needs support, even though it will evolve to become very competitive in the market without any subsidies as little as a decade from now. Relatively modest federal supports of these technologies now can bring them quickly to levels where they are economically, environmentally, and socially attractive energy options that provide significant oil savings. For these technologies federal support through initial stages of commercialization would be appropriate.

149. Ford, Andrew with Jeffrey Amlin and George Backus, "A Practical Approach to Sensitivity Testing of System Dynamics Models"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/jw827v34n?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:25Z
Description:
Sensitivity testing, according to the glossary of terms in a Congressional manual on simulation modeling, is defined as the “running of a simulation model by successively changing the states of the system…and comparing the model outputs to determine the effects of these changes” (Congress 1975, p. 129). Sensitivity testing is generally viewed as an important part of the modeling process because it helps researchers narrow down those areas where more data gathering would be useful. In our introductory remarks, we argue that detailed sensitivity testing is particularly important in system dynamics modeling efforts, and we list several obstacles that make detailed sensitivity testing difficult. We introduce a set of testing procedures developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and verified by the Control Data Corporation that can help system dynamicists perform detailed sensitivity testing on a routine basis. In the body of the paper, we present an illustrative application of the testing procedures, and we list six specific uses of the procedures. We describe the availability of the testing package, and we conclude with a set of practical guidelines for investigators wishing to make use of this unique set of procedures.

150. Forrester, Nathan B., "Eigenvalue Analysis of Dominant Feedback Loops"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/nc5815210?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:26Z
Description:
Eigenvalue analysis of dominant feedback loops promises to be a powerful new tool for identifying the structural origins of behavior in system dynamics models. Traditional simulation methods for dominant loop analysis are time-consuming and error-prone. A new technique permits calculating the marginal contribution of each feedback loop to each mode of behavior in a model. The technique computes the numbers showing the percentage change in natural frequency and damping of each eigenvalue resulting from a one percent change in loop gain. The magnitude of an elasticity measures the overall importance of a loop to a mode of behavior. The magnitudes can be used to rank loops by relative dominance over each mode, or to rank; modes by relative importance to each loop. The techniques can be used to analyze both linear and some nonlinear behavior modes.

151. Fritz , Richard G. A Structural Linguistics Approach to Method in System Dynamic Modeling, "A Structural Linguistics Approach to Method in System Dynamic Modeling"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/3n204g359?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:27Z
Description:
This paper will address the relative utility of employing the linguistic structure used by system dynamics compared to translating the modeler’s perception of reality into other symbolic language systems. The first section will review the relation of language to the method of scientific inquiry. This will include a discussion of the debate over the problem of evaluating policy alternatives of social systems. The final section of the paper will specifically identify some of the differences between the imposed linguistic structure of system dynamic models and the symbolic language systems often employed in orthodox economic analysis.

152. Gaynor, Alan K. with Karl H. Clauset, "Implementing Effective School Improvement Policies: A System Dynamics Policy Analysis"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/6682xm51k?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:28Z
Description:
At the last System Dynamics research conference held in the United States, we presented a paper which described a computer simulation model of an elementary school. The purpose of the model was to examine the structural differences between schools which are effective and ineffective for what we have come to call “initially low-achieving children.” In that paper (Clauset & Gaynor, 1981), in a subsequent paper (Clauset and Gaynor, 1982), and in a book manuscript (Clauset and Gaynor, in preparation), we have described in varying degrees of details tests which examined a number of school improvement policies. Policies testes included the following: Changing policies affection time allocations, Improving teacher skills, Encouraging teachers to  place more emphasis on low achievers, Raising teacher expectations for low-achievers, Improving classroom of school-wide behavior, Changing class size, Changing the demographics of the student body (e.g., size low achievers).

153. Goluke, Ulrich, "A Model of Hydrological and Biological Interactions in a Water Course"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/sq87cb795?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:29Z
Description:
The model described in this report is meant to show how some of the practical problems of combining hydrological and biological processes can be addressed, how models can be used to examine specific questions, and along what lines the present model ought to be developed to eventually arrive at a useful policy tool.

154. Goodman, Michael R. with Gary B. Hirsch, Ben R. Forsyth and William H. Luginbuhl, "Assessing the Economic Impact of Medical Interventions: What is the Price of Success?"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/fn107g840?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:30Z
Description:
Certain medical interventions may result in reducesd costs to society. Others, however, by keeping people alive longer, may cause higher costs to be incurred for continuing health care and disability and retirement payments. A generic disease process model for projecting the implications of various medical interventions is presented. The model is applied to myocardial infarction in the U.S. male population and results of simulating several interventions specific to that disease process are discussed. Conclusions are drawn and it is argued that this model is useful for identifying interventions that result in higher costs to society in order that adequate resources be set aside to cover these costs. The work reported in this paper was funded by a grant from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

155. Gottschalk, Petter, "Systems Dynamics Applied to Railroad Planning"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/j9602h520?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:31Z
Description:
In 1981 a preliminary system dynamics model was developed for the Norwegian State Railways to study passenger and freight traffic for the complete network. In addition, a particular model was developed to study commuter traffic in Oslo. This paper describes modeling work done for the Norwegian State Railways (NSB).

156. Gould, Janet M. with David P. Kreutzer, "Interactive Computer Graphic Technologies for Representing System Dynamics Model Structure and Behavior: New Tools for Marketing and Teaching System Dynamics"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/zg64v4253?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:32Z
Description:
Several interactive computer graphics technologies are now available that can provide powerful tools which enhance our ability to conceptualize, implement, and communicate complicated system dynamics model structure and behavior thereby giving us opportunities to improve our effectiveness as researchers, consultants and educators. This paper gives an overview of several projects utilizing interactive computer graphics and evaluates their significance for system dynamics. Included in this discussion are: 1) computer aided design systems for “automagic” design and updating of overview, policy structure, flow, and causal loop diagrams, 2) computer teaching games and self-paced interactive computer aided instruction packages designed for personal computers; 3) review of the new Micro-DYNAMO and Hewlett-Packard plotting software from Pugh-Roberts, 4) computer networks, computer conference based academic programs for the general public, and network indexed video cassette extension libraries of system dynamics presentations and seminars; 5) interactive computer driven video disk processors with touch sensitive screens allowing a modeller multimodal access to overview, subsystem, policy-structure, causal loop and flow diagrams, table functions, documentors, and DYNAMO equations on the same system; and 6) two- and three- dimensional representations and animations of model behavior on multicolor dynamic displays driven by computer and video disks. These developments are assessed with respect to their possible contribution to the growth of system dynamics as a field, dissemination of system dynamics methodologies and to the implementation of policy recommendations. Because of falling prices for software and hardware, the explosion in interest in personal computers, the exponential growth in their functionality, and the current state of the field, we believe the next two decades will be the phase of most rapid growth for system dynamics.

157. Graham, Alan K. with David P. Kreutzer, "Strategies for Converting to New Technologies: Computer Graphics in the Color Printing Industry"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/zw12zp908?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:33Z
Description:
A number of challenges face firms that need to decide when and whether to convert from technologies to new computer-based technologies. Such is the case with lithographic setup shops, which prepare photos for color printing; they must choose between continuing with traditional craft methods or acquiring digital image-processing equipment. Pioneering firms can be saddled with experimental, undependable, and expensive prototype systems. Rapid technological changes still occurring in digital systems can allow competitors who invest later to obtain cheaper, more effective equipment. But firms investing later may find themselves paying for the large investment just when most competitors are established in the new technology and competition has forced prices and profits to low levels.In order to create an organizing framework for analyzing and developing conversion strategies for these firms, we worked in collaboration with Inter/Consult, the project's sponsor, to build a system dynamics model of the color process industry, its market, and a typical firm. The primary purpose of the moel is to provide a clear understanding of the impact these major capital investments will have on the profit structure of lithographic setup shops and to help these shops develop effective conversion strategies. A secondary purpose of the model is to aid digital image-processing equipment suppliers in understanding their market and to provide them with a toll for generating alternative scenarios given different assumptions about economic trends, technological developments, prices, market size and composition. The model serves as a strategy support system that allows clients to derive scenarios explicitly from causal assumptions and to evaluate alternative investment strategies.

158. Graham, Alan K. with Alexander L. Pugh, "Behavior Analysis Software for Large DYNAMO Models"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/6q1833663?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:34Z
Description:
An experimental software package is being used as an extension to the DYNAMO IV compiler to linearize the model at any point during a simulation, compute the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the linearized system, identify the levels important in producing each behavior mode, and compute the elasticity of a given eigenvalue (corresponding to elasticiy of period and damping) with respect to all model parameters. The package is intended to help modelers understand the causes of behavior in very complex models, both for debugging implausible behavior, and for presenting the causes of plausible behavior more convincingly. The package is able to work for the System Dynamics National Model, a model of around 300 levels. Practical experience has uncovered some difficulties in making the analysis useful,, but these are being surmounted. The experience suggests that mathematical methods should be used extensively “in the field” before being offered as candidates for expanding the paradigm of System Dynamics modeling.

159. Guenneguez, Lysiane with Louis Breton, "A Methodology to Built System Dynamics about Agricultural and Lumberig Products Markets"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/x346dn81k?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:35Z
Description:
For four years, the authers have been studying agricultural products markets with this year a development on lumber market. Search goals are not only to understand market working processes but also to define for each of then the M.I.S. necessary to permit some control by interprofessional organisations specially on price levels. The paper presents in a first step two building model approaches: One is a pragmatic approach, formalised by Buffa, Cuzo, Bonini, Boulden, Cetenick, Rosenzweig, on San Diego meeting, A.M.A., in 1970, the other is a theoretical approach by Bross, Schoderbeck, New -York in 1971, and Kaplan, Scranton in 1964. In a second type, the use of System Dynamics approach is confronted with these two first methods specially on noted research area, In conclusion, results of our models are discussed.

160. Gupta, Naresh K. with K. K. Garga, "Dynamics of Consumer Demand in India"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/q811m265v?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:36Z
Description:
A steel demand model consisting of 15 sub-sectors was formulated by the authors to dynamically estimate the steel demand from GNP per capita. Attempt is now being made to develop a more general consumer demand model specific to India, which, among other things, takes into consideration inflation as caused by increase in money supply to finance development plans of the country, remittances from expatriate workers, foreign loans, and wage increase to increase in production ratio. Existing model has been further modified by giving due weightage to the effect of income distribution among low, middle and high income groups of population on the dynamics of demand. Attempt has also been made to study the sensitivity of the economy, and hence the consumer demand, to changes in the saving to consumption ratio. The positive effect of increase in saving on capital formation on the one side, and negative effect of decrease in demand on the other side, has been discussed.

161. Hall, Roger I., "The Natural Logic of Management Policy Making: Its Implications for the Survival of an Organization"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/p5548845g?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:37Z
Description:
A process-theoretic approach, seldom used but not without promise for organizational behavior research, is employed to postulate a process model of the natural logic evident in organizational policy making. The model is used to explain how the policies of a sample firm (for which twenty years of data are available) became adopted and how, together with critical events, this caused the firm to evolve in particular directions rather than others. Implications of the study are put forward in terms of identifying the pathologies of the policy making process. Some prescriptions are put forward for the proper control of organizations by supervisory bodies, such as boards of directors. It is suggested that Management Science, in the form of systematic procedures for adaptive organizational design and updatable cause maps, may have an important future role to play in senior management affairs. Questions are raised for government and society concerning sustaining and regulating firms in both the public and private sectors in the light of the study.

162. Hines, James H., "The Business Cycle and Money, An Analysis of the Inventory Investment Hypothesis"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/8623jg33h?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:38Z
Description:
Among the most stable phase relationships between economic variables is that between money, the change in money, and general economic activity. Both the change in money and money itself lead production over the business cycle. This relationship buttressed with results of the Granger/Sims test for causality, has been used to support the notion that money causes real activity. This notion, in turn, is used to argue both that monetary policy causes the business cycle and that monetary policy can ameliorate the business cycle. This paper examines a hypothesis for the phase relationships which assume that money does not cause real activity, but, rather, real activity causes money. According to the hypothesis inventory assessment, which leads business activity, induces corporate borrowing, which in turn causes a money expansion with a lead similar to that observed. This has been a working hypothesis for the phasing in money of the System Dynamics National Model project. It is concluded that the hypothesis, by itself, is insufficient to account for the observed timing relationships. However, the inventory investment hypothesis combined with additional hypotheses such as a mechanism for household portfolio adjustment, can account for the phasing. These results do not depend on a causal flow from money to real activity. As a consequence, business cycle phase relationships should not be taken to imply money causes the business cycle nor that monetary policy can influence the business cycle.

163. Holmes, R. K. with E. F. Wolstenholme, "The Design of Colliery Information and Control Systems"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/g445cx76p?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:39Z
Description:
The paper is concerned with describing an investigation of information usage in the control of colliery operations. The premise of the work is that to make the most of new information retrieval technology currently being installed in collieries research is needed to provide compatible advances in the methods of information usage. The approach adopted was to construct a continuous simulation model using system dynamics capable of providing a laboratory assessment of alternative managerial control policies based on alternative sources and levels of aggregation of information. The model developed represents a typical colliery situation composed of three working coalfaces and incorporating planning production, development and manpower sectors. The face sectors transform coal reserves to mined coal output, under manpower constraints and geological shocks, and these are all interlinked by means of allocation policies for manpower and shifts. A range of policies for for the exercise of control through these allocations are considered subject to a range of shocks. It is concluded that, although there are difficulties in designing single policies which are universally best, there are clear advantages associated with fully integrated colliery policies based on information inputs from all aspects of the operations.

164. Holmes, R. K., "Rabies-A Suitable Case for Treatment"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/sf268q29d?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:40Z
Description:
It is envisaged that although the rabies system is a special case whereby there is no recovery from the disease, the principles generated by the analysis may be applicable to epidemiology in general. Such applications providing a definition of a disease system such that effective control policies may be elucidated. The work presented here is complete in itself forming a qualitative analysis of the system. It also provides the basis for a quantitative analysis using a derived computer simulation model.

165. Homer, Jack B., "Partial-Model Testing as a Validation Tool for System Dynamics"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/p2677d089?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:41Z
Description:
This paper discusses an approach to model refinement which involves testing the behavior of individual pieces of a model in response to empirical input data for comparison with empirical output data. Partial-model tests should be used for selecting formulations or estimating parameters only when appropriate case-specific or logical information is not available for this purpose. The smaller the model components used for partial-model testing, the more likely it is that the model will prove useful for anticipating events outside the historical experience and the less likely it is that observed behavior will be incorrectly attributed to certain relationships or parameters. Thus, from the standpoint of structural validity, partial-model testing is an improvement over whole-model testing for the purpose of structural adjustment. The paper presents a detailed example of partial-model testing in the context of a generic model of the evolving use of a new medical technology. Specifically, the technique is used for adjusting and validating a model subsystem that can explain why the reporting of clinical information on cardiac pacemakers has been marked by regular oscillations over time.

166. Jacobsen , Chanoch, "Sociology and System Dynamics"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/b8516554x?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:42Z
Description:
The most basic problem of sociology as an empirical science is the difficulty of replicating studies within reasonable time limits and in genuinely comparable conditions. Sociologists aspire to make correct predictions based on verifiable statements about causal relationships, but cannot, the nature of macro-social phenomena precluding experimental designs with adequate controls. System Dynamics promises a way out of this dilemma. Four things need to be done. (1) Formulate the sociological theory as a causal loop diagram, making all causal reasoning explicit. (2) State what variables are involved in the functioning of the system. Calibrate the model until it is internally consistent. (3) Refine and adjust the constants until the model can reproduce a known time-series of relevant data. Repeat this on number of data-sets. (4) Systematically vary each constant in turn while controlling for the others. This is, in fact, the quasi-experimental procedure for testing the conditions under which the theory will stand or fall, and why. An illustrative example of the proposed strategy is presented, with encouraging results.

167. Kelly, Krista C. with Merle McKenzie, "Data Management for System Dynamics Modeling"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/8623jg34s?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:43Z
Description:
Proper data management is an essential component of system dynamic modeling. The authors have developed an approach to data management, as set forth in this article. The article first describes the modeling and data management activities from a critical path point of view. The approach to handling the data associated activities is then developed. This approach asserts the following: 1. it is appropriate to address data relates activities at each stage of the model development process, and 2. when properly linked, a synergism exists between each model development stage and its associated data handling activity. It is claimed that this approach, including sequenced data handling and synergism between data and modeling activities, can produce a more comprehensive and timely model.

168. Kelly, Thomas G., "Looking at 'Human Factors' in the Automation of Job Service Offices – A System Dynamics Approach"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/ff365n82r?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:44Z
Description:
This paper presents a system dynamics model of human factors in the implementation of office automation in the Job Service. The model includes sectors representing model acceptance by managers, supervisors, professionals, and clerks with the various factors impacting on such acceptance. Since the perceived usefulness of the automated system for office performance is quite important (especially for managers), sectors representing workflow and efficiency are also included.

169. Keloharju, Raimo, "On the Rules of the Game in System Dynamics"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/tm70nd67x?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:45Z
Description:
The strengths of the SD approach are as follows: explicit use of causal relations, the admission of qualitative information into the model and the potential for methodological ‘merges’. The drawback of the methodology is that it is difficult for the uninitiated and considerable effort is required in the modeling of SD. The purpose of strategic planning is to find a new product/market combination which accurately reflects the company’s strengths and weaknesses. In our case the SD community is the “company’; the methodology of SD is the product and different types of models correspond to market areas.

170. Kinek, Patrick A. with Anil B. Jambekar, "Modeling Small Surface Coal Operator to Study the Effect of Government’s Permitting and Bonding Review Process"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/3b591t61d?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:46Z
Description:
This paper presents the discussion and the application of system dynamic methodology to study the consequences of government regulations on small surface coal operators. In 1977 Congress promulgated the surface Mining and Reclamation Act, which brought about some critical changes such as lengthy and costly permit application procedures, lengthy local and state review of permits and lands, increased bond fees and costly reclamation requirements. Small surface coal operators appeared to be particularly vulnerable. Policies frequently considered by the surface mining industry and the government to alleviate the hardship caused by the regulations are mechanisms to offset increased bond fees. It is a purpose of this paper to demonstrate the utility of system dynamics as any effective methodology to study the long term effects of such policies.

171. King, P. D. A. with R. G. Coyle and E. F. Wolstenholme, "A General Feedback Model of Business Performance"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/qv33sf43m?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:47Z
Description:
The paper concludes that the general models of business performance should greatly benefit from analysis within a dynamic framework. The work has already indicated possible relationships between existing theories and formed the basis of a simulation model which may identify the possible consequences of certain strategic actions combined with alternative organization structures.

172. Krallmann, Hermann, "Enlarging the Paradigm: Historical View from 1973 until 1983"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/pg15bz16v?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:48Z
Description:
This paper will provide an overview of the past ten years describing the activities of enlarging the paradigm of System Dynamics (SD).

173. Kumar, Rakesh with Olaf Kleine, "System Dynamics Model of Material Flow: Case of a Steel Plant"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/js957059n?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:49Z
Description:
The System Dynamics Method has been applied to simulate the flow of production in a steel plant. This model has been designed to be an aid in long term planning. The model is driven by a time variant input i.e. incoming orders of nine different types of finished steel products. The internal dynamics is generated by six negative feed back loops of a production shop. The material flow takes place through 16 such shops each having its own dynamics which gets induced to other shops as material flows from coke ovens to finishing mills. The model makes explicit the environmental influences, policy parameters and their relationships with production. Together these explain the dynamic behaviour of monthly production. It can now be used to experiment with all that can be thought of to influence the parameters and improve upon the production performance of the steel plant. The extended version of this model which includes the financial aspects is a top management laboratory for experimentation with different scenarios of environmental influences and counteracting strategies.

174. Kumar, Rakesh, "System Dynamics Model of Indian Economy for Studying Behavior of Inflation"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/9z903h896?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:50Z

175. Levine, Ralph L., "The Paradigms of Psychology and System Dynamics"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/bk128v67t?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:51Z
Description:
This paper compares and contrasts the philosophical and methodological paradigms used by psychologists and system dynamicists. Currently, psychologists collect huge amounts of data, use open loop methods of experimental design, and think that classical statistical models, such as analysis of variance and regression analysis, provide the most useful methods for studying social phenomina. Behavioral approaches to psychology differ sharply with the system dynamicists concerning the relative importance of external vs. internal sources of influence on behavior.The behaviorists focus on controlling the external environment, even denying the existance or importance of internal states. The problems of using external control are illustrate by contrasting two simple attitude change models; one which modifies attitudes solely through outside influences and another which makes the change in attitudes a function of the state variables. System dynamicists attempt to understand the dynamics of social processes through the study and analysis of dynamic loop structure. These techniques would be extremely useful for those psychologists using correlational analysis and causal modeling methods, where the implications of dynamic structure are not always fully understood.

176. Lin, C. Y., "Validation Testing: A Case Study"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/2801q129j?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:52Z
Description:
Validation testing provides the tool for building confidence in a model. It enables an analyst to verify the correctness and usefulness of a model and to gain better insight into, and understanding of, the system being modeled. Although important, validation testing is sometimes difficult to conduct. This paper presents the author’s experiences with using the model validation tests to validate a system dynamics model. The paper describes the tests and applications that were most useful in examining the validity of the model, identifies difficulties that can arise during validation testing and offers suggestions for reducing their impact on the process of model validation.

177. Lopez, David A., "Using System Dynamics to Model a University Library System"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/bc3872535?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:53Z
Description:
The application of management science techniques to problems of managing libraries has been a relatively recent development. The paper describes construction, development, and application of an interactive System Dynamics computer simulation model to a large university library system. Actual experience gained in developing and applying this System Dynamics model is reported. Operational tactics and strategies a library might be considering in it's daily operation are simulated and evaluated. Possible improvements to this model are also discussed.

178. Lyneis, James M.with Dominic Geraghty, "Regulatory Policy and the Performance of Electric Utilities: a System Dynamics Analysis"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/fb494s79d?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:54Z
Description:
In response to the need for an integrated look at the problems of electric utilities, Pugh-Roberts Associates, Inc. has developed a strategic planning model for electric utilities. In various forms, it has been used by utility industry investors, by individual utilities, and by research organizations for analyzing alternative investment, management, and regulatory strategies.

179. Maier, Helmut, "Results and Experience with a Model of Adjustment of Student Enrollment at the Berlin School of Economics with Medium-term Consequences for Room Planning"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/6108vv103?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:56Z
Description:
This paper presents results of a model which has been used to avoid the consequences of a spatial expert opinion concerning the further development of the Berlin School of Economics in West Berlin in the year 1982. Starting point is the so called “HIS-Gutachten” of February 1982. This expert opinion was commissioned by the Senator for Science and Culture of the West Berlin government to show the possibilities of finding free capacity for a different institution in the building used by the Berlin School of Economics during the current period of limited financial resources.

180. Mass, Nathaniel J., "Monetary Policy: A Comparative Study of Economic Forecasting Methodologies"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/m326mk01r?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:57Z
Description:
This paper proposes to utilize the Management Technologies' U.S. Economic Model to simulate the same monetary policy tests performed on the three macro-econometric models. Such comparison is likely to be methodologically revealing for several reasons. First, the 'Management Technologies' U.S. model is at least of comparable detail and sophistication to the econometric models. Second, the U.S. Model has been developed for similar purposes of short-term (1-2 years) and medium-term (5-20 years) forecasting and analysis of various industry and government policy measures. Third, the U.S. Model has been extensively validated historically and empirically, so that model details and parameter values are not simply “representative” a priori selections, but meet the dual tests of being a priori satisfactory and historically accurate. Policy tests thus far performed on the U.S. Model in fact illustrate significant differences from the econometric results, both near-term and longer-term.

181. McIvor, I. D. with E. Probert, "The Role of Interactive Colour Graphics in Boosting User Understanding and Confidence"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/z316qk759?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:58Z
Description:
Our role is to advise senior British Telecom management on strategy for BT as a whole. This requires coherent strategic analysis aided by systems dynamics models. All management levels must have confidence in the models in their results. For analysing alternative futures we find that graphs are easier to appreciate and understand. We have also found that colour graphics greatly enhances the presentation of more than one curve at a time. Interaction with models in real time is a major step in boosting user confidence for it allows rapid confirmation, or rejection, of the user's prejudices. Interfaces to computer models, such as menus, bit pads, etc, are successful if they interface efficiently between the user's mental map and that which is enshrined in the model. If the user can move a 'lever' which exists in the real world and that causes the model to display the effects he expects, then he will have confidence in the model. Decision makers want the best strategy. We shall discuss how we use colour graphics to compare strategies, but that often begs the question 'Why?'. This requires techniques used in artificial intelligence, which can also be used to 'customise' interfaces to individual users.

182. McKenzie,Merle, "System Dynamics Modeling for Long Range Strategic Planning"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/44558x865?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:36:59Z
Description:
A system dynamics model of a major telecommunications network has been developed to support managers in the function of long range strategic planning. Application of system dynamics to the strategic planning area was found to be, in some respects, quite unique. The article discusses this type of application in the areas of model requirements, sponsorship, scope, development, and review. In the area of requirements, it was found that a system dynamics model developed to support long range strategic planning should be quite broad in scope, must satisfy a potentially large community of planners, yet also must pass the review of tactical planners as well. A baseline-model approach is proposed as an effective way to satisfy these requirements. Guidelines for the modeler are proposed for obtaining sponsorship, for avoiding pitfalls in the model development process, and for interacting with model users and reviewers. The baseline-model approach, coupled with the guidelines, has been found to work quite effectively within one organization to support long range strategic planning.

183. Mihram, G. Arthur, "Reflecting Decision-Making in Models of Dynamic Systems"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/9g54z2024?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:00Z
Description:
System Dynamics has been virtually defined with a requirement for authoring a model in the language, DYNAMO. The present paper extends the previously established [Theory and Decision 7: 67-94 (1976)] result that DYNAMO esentially requires the author of a model of a dynamic system write a set of difference equations.

184. Mitchiner , John L., "The Effect of Government Policy on Alternate Energy Technology Market Penetration"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/2n49tk07m?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:01Z
Description:
Federal Support for alternate energy technologies has gone through a boom/bust cycle during the Carter and Regan administrations. To investigate the effects of these policies, I use a system dynamics model of the industrial market penetration of parabolic troughs as a case study. The Regan policy, a laissez-faire policy, lets free market forces determine the market penetration. The Carter policy, an active government policy, combines research, development and demonstration with information dissemination and market financial incentives. The optimal policy depends upon future energy prices. If the price of conventional energy remains low, parabolic troughs never become competitive even with significant government support and thus the laissez-faire policy reduces federal expenditures by ~ $60 million with no negative effects. If the price of unconventional energy increases significantly, however, free-market forces do not develop parabolic troughs into a practical energy source without the benefit of an active government program. If this case study is generalizable to other alternate energy technologies, an active government role in alternate energy technology development should be thought as an insurance policy. How much is it worth to the U.S. today to insure future price stability?

185. Moffatt, Ian, "A Political-Economic Model of Urban Growth in Britain, 1801-2001"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/9306tg82v?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:02Z
Description:
Marxian economics is used as a new conceptual foundation for modelling urban growth. This conceptual model is made operational using the methodology of system dynamics to replicate the pattern of urban growth for an hypothetical city set in a British context. The predicted and actual patterns of urban growth are then compared to a set of British towns and cities from 1801 to 1971, with further predictions to 2001 in dicennial intervals. Some advantages and limitations of this new approach to urban modelling are discussed.

186. Moffatt, Ian, "Some Methodological and Epistemological Problems Involved in System Dynamics Modelling"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/qj72pr30j?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:03Z
Description:
This paper reviews the application of system dynamics modelling in a variety of substantive studies published between 1961 and 1981. A five-fold typology of system dynamics models is presented and this is followed by a mehodological critique of many of these studies. On the basis of this review four fundamental epistemological problems are identified. These problems include the difficulties involved in closing complex, sub-global models, the various behavioural modes exhibited by dynamic models, the distinction between teleological and teleonomic perspectives and, finally, some aspects of the ideology of control are discussed in terms of conservative, reformist and radical uses of system dynamics models. It is argued that the methodological weaknesses and epistemological problems associated with many system dynamics models cast grave doubts on both their scientific content and usefulness to policy makers.

187. Mohapatra, Pratap K. J. with Sushil K. Sharma, "Synthetic Design of Policy Decisions in System Dynamics Models-A Modal Control Theoretic Approach"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/5m60r9116?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:04Z
Description:
Researchers and practitioners in System Dynamics usually folllow a trial-and-error process to design new policy decisions. They mainly use causal loop diagrams for this purpose. However, these diagrams portray 'directions' of influence and not its 'strength'. Therefore, the process of policy design becomes time consuming especially for a beginner and those working with insufficient computer facility. This paper presents an alternative approach for policy design using Modal Control Theory. In this approach, policy variables are treated as control variables by delinking them from other variables. This generally leads to greatly simplified models which are free from many nonlinearities. Providing that this reduced system is linear and controllable, it is possible to synthetically generate control policies by modal control theory to ensure any prescribed degree of stability. These theoretical control policies can then be used to design realistic policy decisions. The Chapter-8 problem of Coyle is used here as a test example. It is shown that policies designed in the light of modeal control theoretic results are superior to those suggested by Coyle.

188. Morecroft, John D. W., "Rationality and Structure in Behavioral Models of Business Systems"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/h702qr038?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:05Z
Description:
Rationality is an underutilized concept for creating and analyzing behavioral simulation models of business systems. Much explanatory power and insight can be gained by assuming that business decisionmaking is intendedly rational, examining the factors that limit rational adjustment in business decisions, and exposing in simulation experiments the rationality the underlies even the most counterintuitive total-system behavior. The paper begins by defining rationality and illustrating the difference between objective rationality, which is common in behavioral models of decisionmaking. Two methods of analysis are then proposed for clarifying the theory implicit in a simulation model. The first method is premise description. In describing decision functions and model equations attention should be drawn to the organizational processes of factoring, goal formation, routine and tradition that limit the area of rational adjustment in business decisionmaking. The second method is partial model testing. A sequence of partial model tests should be designed to examine the intended rationality of decisionmaking. The intuitively clear and sensible behavior of partial tests should be contrasted with the more complex and often counterintuitive behavior of the whole model. The application of these methods is illustrated with a  simulation model of a sales organization containing linked decision functions for sales objectives and salesman overtime, and a behavioral function for sales force motivation.

189. Morecroft, John D. with W. Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid, "A Generic System Dynamics Model of Software Project Management"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/4x51j3087?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:06Z
Description:
Our objective in this research effort is to provide both software development managers and researchers with a useful way of thinking about organizational improvement issues. Our aim is to develop an integrative model of software project management that can help them answer the difficult questions they need to raise when assessing organizational health, selecting improvement tools (from many that are readily available), and implementing their choices.

190. Morecroft, John D. W. with Geoffrey P. Mott and Zafer J. Achi, "Modeling a Professional Service Firm"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/47429t62t?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:07Z
Description:
Practitioners of Management Science have repeatedly confronted the problem of assessing the impact of variables such as job satisfaction and career aspirations on the performance of organizations. This problem is most acutely felt by service firms where the quality of 'output' is directly determined by factors that, because intangible, are difficult to define and control. In this article the authors use the methodology of System Dynamics to model the behavior of a professional CPA firm. The impact of qualitative variables on the behavior of a typical office is explicitly analyzed and translated into 'hard' economic terms. The results make some interesting observations about the key factors influencing long-term behavior in a people-intensive system, particularly in terms of the relationship between actions at senior levels and consequences further down the system. For instance, the way managers and partners allocate their time between apparently 'competing' activities is a critical factor influencing not only short-term behavior at junior levels but also the process whereby long-term judgments are made about the organization. Each activity has a different return profile (particularly with respect to time) and a different set of associated risks. The study contributes to an understanding of how critical aspects of human resource planning such as management time allocation contribute to the broader, strategic direction of the firm.

191. Mosekilde, Erik with Steen Rasmussen and Torben Smith Sørensen, "Self-Organization and Stochastic Re-Causalization in System Dynamics Models"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/3f462q415?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:08Z
Description:
Self-organization denotes a class of instabilities in which a system spontaneously generates structure, diversity and/or specialization. From a thermodynamic point of view, transitions of this kind, which proceed against the general tendency for relaxation towards an unstructured equilibrium, can occur in energetically open systems and under far-from-equilibrium conditions. The exergy required to build up and maintain a non-equilibrium (so-called dissipative) structure can here be extracted from the continuous supply of energy (and/or resources). The interest of self-organizing systems originates in the work on irreversible thermodynamics performed primarily by the so-called Brussels school. According to this school, developments in biological, ecological, and social systems which involve qualitative change, diversification or increased complexity are also to be viewed as self-organizing processes. This applies for instance to the build-up of genetic information, the appearance of new species in an ecological system, the introduction of new techniques in a social system, the adoption of new scientific paradigms, and the penetration of new products. In the present paper we analyse the basic ideas of self-organization in terms of concepts familiar to System Dynamics practitioners. Through a series of relatively simple models it is shown how System Dynamics can be used as an efficient tool for modeling self-organizing systems. As a particular example we consider the evolution of cooperative structures (RNA molecules with their associated enzymes) in a prebiotic system.

192. Moxnes, Erling, "The Dutch Disease: Causes, Consequences and Cures"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/1r66jj56x?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:09Z
Description:
The Dutch Disease is the name of macroeconomic effects of natural gas income spending in the Netherlands in the 1970’s. Spending resulted in increases in the national wage level, problems for exporting industries and economic instability. A system dynamics model of the Norwegian economy replicates the Dutch Disease for the case of oil income spending in Norway. The underlying causes of the Dutch Disease are discussed, and policies to cure problems are investigated. Subsidies to exporting industries have little effect on the problems in this sector of the economy, and they exacerbate economic instability. A wage freeze has some positive effects on the Dutch Disease. However, this policy causes other problems. An attempt to increase labor mobility has some positive effects. The most effective policy has been found to be a smooth and slow increase in oil income spending, the original cause of the disease. All problems cannot be avoided, and inevitable problems must be balanced against the benefits of oil income spending.

193. Ovide-Etienne, Marcel, "System Dynamics and Industrial Channels Analysis Example: French Timber Channel"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/g732dt52b?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:10Z
Description:
In our thesis we show that the advantage of using D.S. methods for the modelling of economic processes. Some practitioners of econometry have already seen the D.S. as a preliminary to the formalisation of model economy subject. In a recent article, we showed how the optimum of production may sometimes not be given primacy in a sector, in a grouping of firms , or a firm and it is sometimes profitable to analyse the weaknesses which can be found in a whole industrial network in order to understand the lack of competitiveness in national products. The aim of this paper is to apply methods of the system dynamics to the analysis and modelling of the process of pricing certain products in the French timber industry.

194. Pumain, Denise with Bertrand Roehner, Lena Sanders and Thérèse Saint-Julien, "Are French Metropolitan Areas Evolving as Self-Organizing Systems?"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/xp68m0692?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:11Z
Description:
Peter Allan’s Intra-urban model is a very appealing application of bifurcation theory for simulating the evolution of an urban spatial structure. It is actually a spatial dynamic model, and it brings together many well-known empirical regularities and well-established theoretic proposals, as logistic growth, economic base theory, distance-decay functions, urban ecology and actor’s behaviour in an urban context. Until now, this model has only been tested in fictitious urban situations and did prove its ability to simulate various urban evolutions, especially of the north-american type. However, it needs to be tested in real-world situations. Main questions are: Until which extent the same set of equations is able to simulate various observed urban evolution; and how many changes in parameters’ values are necessary to reproduce observed evolution in different towns. So we tried to apply the model to a sample of fench metropolitan areas.

195. Rahn, R. J., "Some Dynamic Effects of the Aggregation of Generic Model Systems- The Master Equation Approach"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/8s45qt41s?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:12Z
Description:
The relationship between the dynamic behavior of individual components of a large system and the overall behavior of the large system has rarely been analyzed in the system dynamics literature. The usual approach is to treat the large system (e.g. a national economy) as a lumped-parameter version of the component systems. A number of examples from physical systems (plasma instabilities, fluid and chemical-reaction waves) suggest that the lumped parameter approach is not always adequate as a representation of the dynamics of systems or as a cogent explanation of the behavior of aggregate systems. In particular, new collective modes of behavior are found when the stochastic distribution of micro-level systems over internal states is considered. The proper treatment of the aggregation of micro-systems can reveal novel dynamic behavior modes and can indicate under what conditions these modes may become active. The explicit treatment of the aggregation of micro-systems can also clarify the relationships between the structure and parameters of the micro-systems and those of a lumped-parameter representation of the macro-system, thus giving some precision to arguments based on macro-level models of interacting micro-level systems. One approach to the study of the collective behavior of elementary systems uses the concept of a “dissipative structure” as developed by Prigogine and colleagues over the past fifteen years. This paper continues the work of a previous paper on the subject by applying the Master Equation Formulation to several generic models of first and second order (including delays, sigmoid growth, predator-prey and other oscillatory systems). Conditions under which novel aggregate behavior may be expected to appear are determined. Some linear systems do not present any novelty in the theory, most attention is focused on non-linear examples.

196. Ramaprasad, Arkalgud, "A Typology of Adaptive Organizational Changes"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/2z10x7341?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:13Z
Description:
Three types of changes are proposed as being generic to an organization's adaptation to its environment. They are: (a) Change in pattern, (b) Change in Structure, and (c ) Change of elements. The typology is based on Atkin's mathematical structure. The typology attempts to characterize change on the basis of what is changed and what is held constant, instead of on the basis of the effects of the change is done in a number of current typologies. The three types of changes are described and discussed with reference to a problem faced by a diverse and fragmented academic department. The typology provides a framework for a strategist to delineate alternative ways in which an organization can be changed to adapt to its environment, to evaluate the pros and cons of each alternative, and to make a choice.

197. Richmond, Barry M., "Enlarge the Paradigm? Yes!"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/bv73ch27m?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:14Z
Description:
The question at issue before this session is whether the system dynamics paradigm should be expanded to include selected issues from the broader field of systems theory. Although some limited expansion in this direction is desirable and probably inevitable, I will argue that it is not the most fruitful direction for broadening our paradigm to take.

198. Rogge, Lee with Stephen G. Boyce, "Economic Analysis with System Dynamics: A Forestry Example"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/057428335?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:15Z
Description:
It is important to begin any modeling attempt by determining the primary objectives of the decision makers in the field. In forestry there are two interests: production of multiple resources and profit (or cost). Conventional methods of analysis are incapable of handling the two foci adequately; one is always subsumed in the other. The DYNAST model, with the addition of an economic algorithm, provides a means of analyzing the system from both viewpoints without forcing one to dominate the other. This balance is achieved through using capital budgeting techniques such as net present value to represent both the multiple use and profit aspects of money. The economic algorithm can be used to analyze money as one of a host of multiple benefits in comparing management options, or as a method of estimating profitability independent of the context of the model. This latter application makes the algorithm potentially useful in many modeling contexts simulating business investment decisions.

199. Rubinstein, R., "Antithetic Random Variables, for the Simulation of Complex Stochastic Systems"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/dz011773m?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:16Z
Description:
This paper deals with the optimality and efficiency of antithetic random variates in estimating output parameters of general complex stochastic systems (e.g., reliability systems, stochastic networks, queues, etc.) with elements linked by multivariate dependence. It is shown that antithetic random variates are much more accurate than the crude Monte Carlo method, requires less CPU time and can be efficiently used by simulation practitions. The validity of the theory is demonstrated by simulation queueings and reliability systems and stochastic networks of different complexity.

200. Ryan, James E., "The Representation of Values in System Dynamics Models of Organizational Performance"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1983
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, cf82ceba47eedd73f41b00918de16477, and b0aa2a699b54f0d19f6a9d93bdbcfa18
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/x633fj01w?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:37:17Z
Description:
A theoretical framework from the field of Organizational Theory called the “Competing Values Approach to Organizational Effectiveness” was used to analyze five System Dynamics models of organizations. This framework is a perceptual ordering of criteria that are often used to evaluate organizational performance. An example of the procedures involved is discussed using Richmond’s “Organization Evolution” model. The purpose of the exercise was to (1) determine if it was possible to express the behavior a dynamic model in terms of the Competing Values Framework, (2) discover what conceptual and technical problems might arise, and (3) draw some conclusions about the usefulness of the Competing Values Approach to system dynamicists and the usefulness of System Dynamics to organizational theorists. It was found that it is possible to formulate dynamic models in terms of the Competing Values Framework. However, conceptual and technical problems arise since organizational theorists and system dynamicists tend to work at different levels of abstraction. The Competing Values Approach may be used as one of many theoretical frameworks by system Dynamicists as an aid to organizational inquiry. Organizational theorists, on the other hand, can make use of System Dynamics since it allows a researcher to study structure and complex interactions over time.